by Dave Hovde, KSBY Meteorologist

A low pressure system drops through the region Tuesday, it may be moisture starved but the instability aloft is significant.  On and off showers are likely and a few scattered thunderstorms can’t be ruled out and because of the amount of cold air aloft small hail could be produced if thunderstorms develop.  Additionally as the system departs the snow levels drop all the way down to 2000ft in San Luis Obispo county, low enough to deposit snow on area peaks.

In total less than .50″ of rain should fall.

Highs in the mid to upper 40s in the interior with temps near the mid 50s at the coast and in coastal valleys, afternoon winds SW sifting to the NW 15-25mph.

As far as the snow:

A Winter Weather Advisory in place for the SLO and SB County Mountains:

Snow will begin to impact the mountains early Tuesday morning then continue through Tuesday night  Snow levels will begin at 4000 feet Tuesday morning but then quickly lower to around 3000 feet late Tuesday afternoon before lowering to 2000 to 2500 feet Tuesday night.

Moderate snow accumulations between 3 and 6 inches are expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night above 3000ft, at 2000ft minor accumulations are possible.

Other impacts:   Southwest winds between 15 and 25 mph will also impact the area on Tuesday turning to the north Tuesday night.  The combination of snow and breezy winds could create blowing snow with reduced visibilities at higher elevations.

by Dave Hovde, KSBY Meteorologist

Leapfrogging off Steve’s story about the Olympics in need of snow, I thought I might talk a little about local snow.  Anytime it happens under about 3000ft locals are loading their kids in the car and driving up the hills looking for the bewilderment that is snow near the Pacific Ocean.  Not unlike saying the word ‘earthquake’ or ‘fire’ there is an information gap after you even mention snow in a local forecast.  But the details are significant, we are talking about snow possible Tuesday night in the forecast.  Down to about the 2000ft level.

Here is why snow is not easy to make here.  The Pacific Ocean water, while cold to swim in, is just warm.  It mitigates any cold air mass that moves in.  The coldest air for us typically backs in from the east, wrapping around low pressure systems.  That is the case for Tuesday night.  Additionally the coldest temps happen when skies clear, clear skies don’t produce snow.  On top of that, especially in San Luis Obispo County the mountains are just not tall enough.

Yes, Caliente Mountain is 5,104 feet but most of the local tops are much more tame.  Even Bishop Peak is only 1,546 feet, the Cuesta Grade Summit is 1,522 feet.

Yes, it does snow around here but that snow level is key.  Not a lot of people live above 2000ft here, but on those snow days those locations do get a lot of visitors.

There is a Winter Weather Advisory in place for the SLO and SB County Mountains, and here are the details:

Snow will begin to impact the mountains early Tuesday morning then continue through Tuesday night  Snow levels will begin at 4000 feet Tuesday morning but then quickly lower to around 3000 feet late Tuesday afternoon before lowering to 2000 to 2500 feet Tuesday night.

Moderate snow accumulations between 3 and 6 inches are expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night above 3000ft, at 2000ft minor accumulations are possible.

Other impacts:   Southwest winds between 15 and 25 mph will also impact the area on Tuesday turning to the north Tuesday night.  The combination of snow and breezy winds could create blowing snow with reduced visibilities at higher elevations.

Arroyo Grande 68
Atascadero 59
Avila Beach 65
CA Valley 51
Cambria 57
Cayucos 57
Corbett Canyon 64
Creston 55
Cuyama 52
Goleta 61
Grover Beach 62
Guadalupe 57
Hearst Castle 56
Lompoc 57
Los Osos 64
Morro Bay 57
Nipomo 64
Oceano 65
Orcutt 60
Paso Robles 58
Pismo Beach 63
Pozo 56
San Luis Obispo 61
San Miguel 61
Santa Barbara 62
Santa Margarita 55
Santa Maria 60
Santa Ynez 63
Shell Beach 63
Solvang 55
Templeton 60
Vandenberg AFB 56

By: KSBY Meteorologist Steve Adamson

The Winter Olympics are starting later this week and there’s one venue in Vancouver that isn’t happy with the way the weather has been behaving so far this winter. Cypress Mountain which will be hosting the snowboarding and freestyle skiing events, has endured unseasonably mild conditions much of the winter to date. In fact, the city of Vancouver itself has been basking in record warm temperatures.

While the resort area of Whistler ( where other skiing events will be held ) has managed to fare better in terms of snowfall, Cypress Mountain located about a half hour’s drive from downtown Vancouver, has resigned itself to having to truck snow in. The snow is being trucked in from Allison Pass, which is about a two hour drive from Cypress.

The same weather pattern that has brought the Central Coast of California some rather generous rainfall so far this winter is also responsible for the unusually mild conditions in the southern parts of British Columbia. ( Where Vancouver is located ) What would normally fall as snow in the Vancouver area, has been falling as rain, especially in the lower elevations and the lower portions of the mountains. It’s a result of the El Nino pattern. Temperatures have been just too mild in that area for snow as a general rule.

While Olympic organizers would love nothing more than a change in the weather to help bring snow naturally back to the area, the events will go on at Cypress with workers continuing to truck snow in as needed throughout the games as necessary. That will probably be needed too, because the weather pattern into the rest of February suggests a continuation of unseasonably mild temperatures for the most part, meaning what precipitation falls in the Vancouver area will apt to be more rain than snow.

While this might be considered unusual, it’s not unprecedented for The Winter Olympics to deal with lack of snowfall. In 1964, mild temperatures kept game organizers from putting down ice for the luge and bobsled runs, so the Austrian army had to carve out 20,000 blocks of ice from the mountainside  and transport it to the runs. They also brought in 1.4 million cubic feet of snow to the alpine ski slopes.

By: KSBY Meteorologist Steve Adamson

Here are the high and low temperatures reported for the area today, Sunday Feb. 7th:

San Luis Obispo 57/37

Santa Maria 58/40

Santa Barbara 66/50

Paso Robles 53/36

Pismo Beach 59/41

Arroyo Grande 63/41

Hearst Castle 54/40

Creston 51/39

Avila Beach 62/38

Atascadero 56/34

California Valley 48/37

Cambria 56/40

Cayucos 56/41

Corbett Canyon 56/40

Grover Beach 59/42

Nipomo 58/38

Orcutt 56/41

Pozo 53/39

Solvang 60/40

Templeton 54/30

Cuyama 47/38

Shell Beach 59/41

Port San Luis 53/49

Lompoc 57/43

Vandenberg AFB 56/46

Goleta 62/49

Santa Ynez 58/42

By: KSBY Meteorologist Steve Adamson

Here are the temperature reports for the Central Coastal region, Saturday Feb 6th.

San Luis Obispo 55/46

Santa Maria 58/46

Santa Barbara 60/52

Goleta 58/49

Paso Robles 56/44

Pismo Beach 57/49

Shell Beach 57/49

Grover Beach 62/50

Arroyo Grande 62/47

Atascadero 58/42

Cambria 56/45

Vandenberg AFB 56/49

Cayucos 57/45

California Valley 49/42

Corbett Canyon 57/48

Avila Beach 60/50

Hearst Castle 52/44

Creston 52/44

Santa Ynez 56/46

Port San Luis 57/51

Cuyama 56/47

Morro Bay 57/50

Solvang 61/47

Shandon 55/44

Pozo 53/47

Nipomo 59/44

Orcutt 58/46

Lompoc 57/46

By: KSBY Meteorologist Steve Adamson

Here are a few additional rainfall reports to go with the totals provided by the National Weather Service Los Angeles office. ( Posted earlier Saturday evening to KSBY.com ) These reports encompass rainfall tabulated since late Thursday night through late Saturday evening. ( 11:30pm ) They are from automated observing sites or weather spotter reports.

Grover Beach 1.35″

Pismo Beach 1.01″

Arroyo Grande 1.16″

Cayucos .89″

Orcutt .91″

Nipomo 1.13″

Creston .75″

Cambria 2.02″

Vandenberg AFB 1.17″

Los Osos 0.92″

By: KSBY Meteorologist Steve Adamson

Rainfall has been generous across both the Central Coast and Southern California the past 48 hours. The National Weather Service Los Angeles office has provided a nice detailed summary of rainfall amounts since late Thursday night ( when this latest round of wet weather began ) and through 4pm Saturday. The amounts are noted below. I will note some additional locations later this evening for some other locations across the Central Coast for rainfall totals since Thursday night.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

 NOUS46 KLOX 070152 AAA
 PNSLOX

 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
 455 PM PST SAT FEB 06 2010

 ...PRELIMINARY RAINFALL AND SNOW TOTALS...

 THE FOLLOWING ARE RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES
 FOR THIS RAIN EVENT FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
 400 PM SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

 .LOS ANGELES COUNTY METROPOLITAN
 AVALON............................ 2.95
 HAWTHORNE (KHHR).................. 2.42
 LOS ANGELES AP (KLAX)............. 2.31
 DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES.............. 2.85
 LONG BEACH (KLGB)................. 2.75
 SANTA MONICA (KSMO)............... 3.24
 MONTE NIDO FS..................... 3.74
 BIG ROCK MESA..................... 4.41
 BEL AIR HOTEL..................... 3.86
 BALLONA CK @ SAWTELLE............. 2.52
 HOLLYWOOD RSVR.................... 4.09
 L.A. R @ FIRESTONE................ 2.25
 DOMINGUEZ WATER CO................ 3.26
 LA HABRA HEIGHTS.................. 2.36

 .LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS
 BURBANK (KBUR).................... 2.12
 VAN NUYS (KVNY)................... 2.46
 AGOURA............................ 2.25
 CHATSWORTH RSVR................... 2.18
 SEPULVEDA CYN @ MULHL............. 3.86
 PACOIMA DAM....................... 1.74
 HANSEN DAM........................ 2.19
 SAUGUS............................ 0.75
 DEL VALLE......................... 0.83

 .LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY
 EAGLE ROCK RSRV................... 2.32
 EATON WASH @ LOFTUS............... 2.80
 SAN GABRIEL R @ VLY............... 1.97
 EATON DAM......................... 3.00
 WALNUT CK S.B..................... 2.91
 SANTA FE DAM...................... 2.30
 WHITTIER HILLS.................... 2.51
 CLAREMONT......................... 2.70

 .LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
 SANDBERG (KSDB)................... 0.70
 MOUNT WILSON CBS.................. 2.13
 SANTA ANITA DAM................... 3.70
 SAN GABRIEL DAM................... 2.99
 MORRIS DAM........................ 2.24
 BIG DALTON DAM.................... 2.48
 SIERRA MADRE MAINT YD............. 3.72
 TANBARK........................... 3.02
 SAN ANTONIO DAM................... 1.52
 CHILAO............................ 1.75
 MT BALDY FS....................... 1.91
 WHITAKER PEAK..................... 2.19
 WARM SPRINGS...................... 2.07
 ACTON............................. 1.86
 CAMP 9............................ 2.52

 .LOS ANGELES COUNTY DESERTS
 LANCASTER (KWJF).................. 0.83
 PALMDALE (KPMD)................... 0.74
 PALMDALE WATER DIST............... 0.79
 LANCASTER......................... 0.70

 .VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL
 CAMARILLO (KCMA).................. 1.05
 OXNARD (LOX)...................... 1.87
 LEO CARILLO....................... 1.46
 CNTY GVT CNTR..................... 1.58
 SATICOY YARD...................... 1.44
 LA CONCHITA....................... 1.02
 CALLEGUAS CK @ CSUCI.............. 0.98
 LAS POSAS RESERVOIR............... 0.82
 CONEJO CK ABV HWY 101............. 1.26
 SILVERSTRAND BCH.................. 1.69
 REVOLON SLOUGH.................... 1.18
 OXNARD CIVIC CENTER............... 2.17

 .VENTURA COUNTY WESTERN VALLEYS
 STATION CANYON.................... 2.16
 MATILIJA DAM...................... 2.66
 STEWART CYN....................... 1.54
 FAGAN CYN EAST.................... 1.10
 OJAI.............................. 1.54
 SOUTH MTN E....................... 1.14

 .VENTURA COUNTY EASTERN VALLEYS
 FILLMORE SANITATION............... 1.28
 MOORPARK COUNTY YARD.............. 1.31
 PIRU.............................. 1.31
 LANG RANCH........................ 1.46
 SYCAMORE CYN DAM.................. 0.82
 ROCKY PEAK........................ 2.59
 SIMI SANITATION................... 1.17
 CIRCLE X RANCH.................... 2.09
 SIMI VALLEY APCD.................. 1.12
 CHEESEBORO........................ 1.40

 .VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS
 LOCKWOOD VLY YARD................. 0.69
 WHITE LEDGE PEAK.................. 2.17
 NORDHOFF RIDGE.................... 3.47
 ROSE VALLEY....................... 3.03
 CHUCHUPATE........................ 0.62
 STEWART CANYON.................... 1.54
 OLD MAN MOUNTAIN.................. 3.66

 .SANTA BARBARA NORTH COAST
 SANTA MARIA (KSMX)................ 0.99
 GETTY BASIN....................... 0.83
 TWITCHELL DAM..................... 0.78
 SUDDEN PEAK....................... 1.19
 LOS ALAMOS........................ 1.36
 BUELLTON MAINT YARD............... 1.54
 CUYAMA FS......................... 0.33
 CACHUMA DAM....................... 1.94
 LOS PRIETOS....................... 1.59

 .SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST
 SANTA BARBARA AP (KSBA)........... 1.93
 MARIA YGNACIO RIDGE............... 1.38
 MT. CALVARY....................... 1.34
 SANTA BARBARA FC.................. 1.77
 CARPINTERIA FS.................... 1.24
 EDISON TRAIL...................... 1.82
 GOLETA FS #14..................... 1.71
 MONTECITO......................... 2.20

 .SANTA BARBARA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
 PATERA RANCH...................... 2.08
 FIGUEROA MTN...................... 0.98
 REFUGIO PASS...................... 2.64
 WEST BIG PINE..................... 1.10
 SAN MARCOS PASS................... 2.10
 GIBRALTAR DAM..................... 1.89
 LA CUMBRE PEAK.................... 2.33

 .SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY COAST
 SAN LUIS OBISPO (KSBP)............ 1.72
 NIPOMO............................ 0.83
 OCEANO............................ 1.22
 MORRO BAY......................... 0.70
 SAN LUIS HARBOR................... 1.39

 .SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL
 PASO ROBLES (KPRB)................ 0.69
 ROCKY BUTTE....................... 2.64
 LAS TABLAS........................ 1.46
 UPPER TORO CK RD.................. 0.90
 SANTA MARGARITA................... 1.10
 SALINAS DAM....................... 1.18
 LOPEZ REC AREA.................... 1.03
 BALD MTN.......................... 1.38

 .SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY EASTERN
 ATASCADERO........................ 0.55
 BLACK MTN......................... 1.36
 LA PANZA.......................... 0.66
 BRANCH MTN........................ 1.38
 CARRIZO PLAIN..................... 0.32

 SNOW TOTALS IN INCHES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
 THROUGH 4PM SATURDAY AFTERNOON

 MOUNTAIN HIGH 7000 FT............. 6 INCHES
 BIG PINES 7000 FT................. 5 INCHES


 BARTLING/BOLDT

By Dr. John Curtis.

Preface: If you are the impatient type or suffer from ADD, skip this post and move on to the next. Here we go:

It is very important to note that due to differences in terrain, temps, wind, rain statistics can vary widely. When weather watchers and others report the numbers they may tend to want to argue about who’s accurate and who’s not. In reality, they all are probably correct or close. Think about it from this angle; instruments, location, and other factors will bring varied results so getting an approximation is important. I.E. we did see .6″ inches of rain at my location since early Fri A.M.

Reality time: Temps around Los Osos/Morro Bay can vary as can relative humidity. And, there is a reason we call many locations on the central coast “micro climates” because of above reasons plus the way terrain and distance from the ocean-sometimes next to the ocean but with wind blocked by hills-can cause some pretty warm warm weather daytime temperatures. Sometimes night time temperatures can be quite warm due to that offshore wind pattern which, when flows down the mountains, can begin to compress and heat. Fall can bring very warm coastal temperatures when it’s actually cooler east of the coastal ridges and mountains. Just the opposite of the summer time pattern.

Hows and whys: When I did my internship at KABC TV Channel 7 Eyewitness News in LA years ago, and under the mentorship of  my dear friend, Dr. George Fischbeck, we focused on similar issues around the LA Basin. Plus we made sure viewers knew that chances of rain meant anywhere around viewing area. Then we went into orographics-those lifting conditions which enhance rainfall around up sloping areas i.e. foothill locations. Snow levels, and how various wind and moisture conditions play an important part in rainfall. Dr. George was the very first to introduce the 500mb chart and clinical approach to forecasting on TV news. Today, we look at the computer models but must be very careful not to take them too seriously. I personally prefer the sat pix, upper air charts as well as wind, humidity,  and conditions at different altitudes. For instance, two charts we refer to as soundings and adiabatics. Two different ways to measure wind currents and moisture at different levels. One other thing, we always like to observe winds at various altitudes. Recently, we saw winds over 200kts at the 200mb level. That’s very close to 49,000 feet. We also saw record low barometric pressure readings. Our “unofficial” reading here was 28.74. That’s a reading you might see similar to a category 2 hurricane.

Dr. George and I stay in touch and talk several times a week. TV was a good long, almost 30 years back but everyone should have a mentor or teacher they appreciated in school, hobby, or vocation. If you enjoy the young people and teaching, be there for them. It is that important.

by Dave Hovde, KSBY Meteorologist

Saturday rain and isolated thunderstorms in the forecast .20-.50″ of rain with locally higher amounts possible.  S winds 10-20mph will shift to the west late in the day.  Daytime highs will only squeeze out the upper 50s.  Snow levels will drop to about 3500ft Saturday night.  Sunday and Monday look dry.

Another weak disturbance could bring some rain to the area on Tuesday and another opportunity Friday, on balance temps across the 6 day forecast will only be in the upper 50s and low 60s as general upper level troughiness lingers over the region.

Meteorologist Steve Adamson will have more discussion and analysis this weekend.